| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1,275,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $1,270,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $1,255,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $1,265,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $1,250,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $1,260,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $1,245,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $1,240,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi event asks which of eight predefined ranges will describe the San Francisco metro area typical home value in February 2026; it aggregates market expectations about future local housing prices and can signal changing affordability or demand conditions.
San Francisco housing is shaped by long-term supply constraints, high-wage employment in the tech sector, and strong historical demand, producing prices well above national norms. Since 2020 the market has seen volatility driven by pandemic-era moves, remote-work trends, and monetary policy shifts; ongoing factors through 2024–25 include inventory changes, migration patterns, and local policy decisions.
Market prices reflect the collective view of traders about which outcome will actually be observed in Feb 2026; prices update as participants absorb new data on rates, employment, inventory, and other housing drivers.
The event settles to a specific reference value defined in the contract terms on the Kalshi event page; those terms specify the exact data source and metric used to represent the 'typical home value.'
The event page lists the close time as TBD; Kalshi will publish the official close and the settlement timing, and settlement normally follows publication of the referenced February 2026 price from the stated data source.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive, predefined range for the San Francisco metro typical home value in Feb 2026; exactly one outcome will settle as correct based on the published reference value.
Key movers include Federal Reserve decisions and resulting mortgage-rate moves, Bay Area employment reports and major tech sector news (hires or layoffs), changes in housing inventory or building-permit data, and significant local policy announcements affecting housing supply or taxes.
Participants include retail traders, a small number of professional traders or market makers, and those focused on local housing or macro developments; with modest volume, individual large trades or new information can move prices more sharply than in deeper markets.