| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.0 mbpd | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Russia's crude exports will average below 4.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April. The outcome matters because Russian export volumes influence global crude availability, shipping patterns, and market sentiment.
Russia is one of the world's largest crude suppliers, and its exports fluctuate with production decisions, pipeline flows, seasonal maintenance, weather, and the impact of sanctions or trade workarounds. Since late 2022, changes in destination markets, insurance and payment rules, and shipping routes have altered how and where Russian crude is delivered, making export tallies more sensitive to geopolitical and logistical shifts.
Prediction market odds reflect traders' aggregated expectations about whether the April export measure will meet the contract condition; they move as new information arrives. Treat market prices as a real‑time consensus signal to be considered alongside official data releases and independent analytics.
The contract will define the measurement used for settlement (for example, seaborne exports, pipeline deliveries, or a combined figure). Consult the event's settlement terms on the platform to see which data series and units are authoritative for this market.
Common sources include national customs agencies, international agencies (IEA, OPEC), and commercial analytics firms (e.g., tanker tracking and cargo reporting services). The specific provider used for settlement will be listed in the contract's rules.
Most contracts use a calendar‑month average or total, converted into an average daily rate; however, the exact definition (average, total, or specific reporting window) is specified in the market's settlement methodology—check the event page.
Such practices can obscure origin and timing in public datasets. Whether those flows are counted depends on the data source and methodology the contract uses; some trackers attribute cargoes to origin ports or exporters, while others follow cargo movement regardless of re‑flagging.
A temporary decline can lower the calendar‑month average if large enough or if other days remain weak. Whether a short disruption causes the monthly average to fall below the threshold depends on its duration, magnitude, and how the settlement series aggregates daily or monthly data.