| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.8% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 1.9% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.0% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.1% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.2% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.3% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.4% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.5% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.6% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2.7% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the official Russia unemployment rate will be for February 2026; it matters because the unemployment rate is a core indicator of labor-market health and influences monetary and fiscal policy expectations.
Russia's unemployment rate reflects interactions between domestic demand, commodity export revenues, labor supply changes, and policy responses to economic shocks. Recent years have seen the labor market shaped by sanctions, shifts in migration and workforce participation, and commodity-price volatility, all of which provide important context for a February 2026 reading.
Prediction market prices summarize traders' aggregated views about which unemployment-range outcome is most likely, but they are not official statistics; use them as a real-time indicator of market expectations rather than a substitute for the Rosstat release.
The official reading is published by Rosstat on its monthly schedule, typically in the weeks after the month ends; the market closing time is set by the platform and will be listed on the event page, so check both Rosstat's release calendar and the market page for updates.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific numerical range or bucket of the unemployment rate defined by the market creator; consult the event page for the exact cutoffs, since traders buy contracts tied to those predefined ranges.
Key influences include Rosstat (measurement and revisions), the Ministry of Labour and social-policy programs, fiscal authorities if they introduce hiring or stimulus measures, and broader economic policy actions taken by the government or central bank that affect demand and employment.
Rosstat may report both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted figures; seasonal patterns (holiday employment, winter seasonal work) can alter the raw February number, and any methodological notes or revisions are important for comparing this reading to past months.
Different sources and indicators (ILO-style unemployment, registered unemployed, household surveys, payroll statistics) capture distinct concepts of labor market activity; examine definitions, coverage, and timing to understand why figures diverge and use multiple indicators for a fuller picture.