| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.3 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.4 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.5 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.6 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.7 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.8 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $2.9 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.0 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.1 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.2 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $3.3 trillion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market lets participants take positions on the reported nominal size of Russia's economy in calendar year 2026; outcomes matter because nominal GDP captures the economy's scale and can be influenced by price, exchange rate, and output changes. Understanding likely outcomes helps traders and analysts hedge macro exposure and track how policy and external shocks affect Russia's economic footprint.
Russia's nominal GDP in recent years has been shaped by volatile commodity prices, exchange-rate movements, sanctions and substitution of trade partners, and domestic fiscal and monetary policy reactions. The 2026 reading will reflect the combined effects of any ongoing geopolitical disruption, energy export dynamics, commodity markets, and Russia's internal demand and investment conditions. Official estimates are often revised months or years after first release, so markets price both initial reports and expected revisions.
Prediction market odds represent the market's aggregated view of which nominal GDP outcome is most likely given available information, not a guarantee of the official figure. Traders should interpret prices as a real-time consensus that updates as new data and events (e.g., oil shocks, sanctions changes, official releases) occur.
National accounts for a calendar year are usually published in preliminary form in the months after year-end, with more complete and revised annual figures released later; the market's resolution timing will follow the platform's stated rules, so check the event page for the specific closure and resolution schedule.
Resolution depends on the market's rules—platforms commonly specify accepted sources (for example, the national statistical agency, IMF, or World Bank); consult the market's resolution criteria to see which official release the market will use and how disputes are handled.
If the market's outcomes are denominated in a foreign currency, changes in the ruble exchange rate will alter the USD nominal GDP independently of real output or domestic currency nominal growth, so traders must monitor currency markets as well as domestic price and output data.
Expect initial releases to be revised; check the market's contract terms for whether resolution uses preliminary or final revised figures and incorporate an assessment of typical revision patterns into your strategy.
Key movers include large swings in oil and gas market prices or volumes, announced changes to sanctions or trade relationships, major fiscal or monetary policy shifts from Moscow, unexpected shocks to industrial or agricultural output, and sudden large exchange-rate moves.