| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut more than 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 1-25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 1-25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike more than 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the Reserve Bank of Australia will set monetary policy at its scheduled May board meeting. That decision matters because it directly influences borrowing costs, household budgets, business investment, and the Australian dollar.
The RBA’s Board meets on a regular schedule and uses incoming economic data to decide whether to raise, lower, or maintain the cash rate. Recent inflation trends, labour market conditions, and global developments shape the Bank’s assessment of spare capacity and inflationary pressures.
Prediction market prices reflect aggregated participant expectations about which policy outcome the RBA will choose at the May meeting. Use prices as a real‑time signal of market views, while remembering they can move quickly on new data or central bank communication.
The decision will be announced at the RBA’s scheduled May Board meeting; the Bank publishes the decision statement and any accompanying documents on its official website. Check the RBA calendar for the exact release timing.
The outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive possibilities the market operator defined for the May meeting (for example, various discrete policy moves or ranges and a hold outcome). Consult the market description on the platform to see how each traded outcome maps to specific Board actions.
Key movers are consumer price readings and labour market statistics, along with any interim activity data such as retail sales or business surveys; surprises in these indicators can rapidly change how participants expect the RBA to vote.
Yes—formal decision statements, post‑decision commentary, and speeches by the Governor or Board members provide guidance on the Bank’s outlook and can change market expectations about future policy paths.
Monitor the RBA calendar, scheduled data releases, and central bank speeches; be prepared for rapid repricing after major surprises and use position sizing and stop limits to manage risk given the potential for volatile moves around the announcement.