| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 1-25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike more than 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut more than 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 1-25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market prices the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) official cash rate decision for the March meeting and matters because the RBA’s choice directly affects borrowing costs, inflation expectations, and financial markets across Australia and globally.
The RBA Board meets regularly to set the cash rate with the objective of maintaining inflation near its target and supporting sustainable employment. In recent years the Bank has navigated higher inflation, shifting labor market dynamics, and evolving global monetary conditions; the March decision will be made against that evolving backdrop.
Prediction market odds reflect traders’ collective assessment of which discrete cash-rate outcome the RBA will announce in March and typically move as new data, official communications, or global developments arrive.
The RBA Board sets its decision on its scheduled March meeting day; the Bank typically publishes the official rate decision and an accompanying statement at its announced release time on that day. Check the RBA calendar and this market’s timeline for the exact announcement and market close.
Each outcome corresponds to a distinct official cash-rate result or range the market will use to resolve the event, covering the plausible decision paths the RBA could take (e.g., different sizes or directions of change, or a hold).
The decision is made by the RBA Board, chaired by the Governor, using a range of inputs: inflation and wage data, labor-market indicators, domestic demand and housing conditions, and international economic and financial developments.
Look at how the RBA has historically balanced inflation outcomes, labor-market conditions, and financial stability concerns; the Bank tends to act in a data-dependent, gradual manner and places weight on its published guidance and minutes when deciding the timing and size of policy moves.
Key items include the latest CPI and wage releases, monthly employment and activity indicators, RBA speeches and minutes, and global central-bank developments; these items can materially shift market expectations ahead of the March announcement.