| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut more than 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 1-25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 1-25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike more than 25bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market captures expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy rate decision at its June meeting. The RBA's decision influences borrowing costs, financial markets, and business and household planning across Australia.
The RBA sets the official cash rate at scheduled board meetings in response to evolving inflation, labour market and growth conditions. Recent years have seen shifting dynamics around inflation and post‑pandemic recovery; the specific economic backdrop heading into June will depend on the latest CPI, wages, employment and GDP releases as well as international developments.
Prediction market prices aggregate participant views about which of the listed outcomes the RBA will announce. Treat them as a real‑time market indicator that complements official RBA communication and incoming economic data rather than as a definitive forecast.
The RBA announces decisions at its scheduled board meeting; consult the RBA meeting calendar for the exact date and time. This market will settle to the outcome that matches the official RBA decision and accompanying policy statement as defined in the event rules—check the market page for settlement timing and any tie‑breaking procedures.
The market divides the universe of possible RBA moves into five mutually exclusive categories (for example: several different sizes of rate increases, no change, or decreases). The exact wording and mapping from the RBA's announcement to an outcome are listed on the event page—read those outcome definitions carefully.
The RBA Governor and the RBA Board make the formal decision. Key informational inputs include RBA staff forecasts and publications, the Board statement and minutes, speeches by senior officials, and the major economic releases such as CPI, wages, employment, and GDP.
Surprising CPI, wage or employment prints, or an unexpected GDP outcome, can materially change the RBA's reaction function and therefore market expectations. Financial market moves—swap rates, bond yields and the AUD—also convey updated information that traders will incorporate into prices.
The official decision determines settlement, but accompanying guidance and the tone of the statement influence how participants interpret the likely future path of policy and can shift market prices after the announcement. Use the guidance to assess persistence of the decision and implications for subsequent meetings.