| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starts | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether an economy will enter a recession during the specified calendar year; it matters because collective expectations about a recession influence asset prices, business planning, and policy decisions.
A recession is a broad slowdown in economic activity typically marked by falling output, employment, and spending; different institutions and contracts use varying criteria to declare one. Traders and analysts watch GDP data, labor-market reports, inflation readings, financial conditions, and official announcements to assess recession risk.
Market prices aggregate traders’ views about the probability of a recession under the contract’s settlement terms; use prices as a real-time signal of expectations while remembering they can change rapidly as new data and events arrive.
Settlement follows the definition and arbiter specified in the contract description — it may reference an official body (for example, a national business-cycle dating committee), specified indicator thresholds, or other criteria; check the market's resolution rules for the exact definition.
‘This year’ refers to the calendar year identified in the contract title/description; confirm the market text for the exact start and end timestamps that the platform will use for determining outcomes.
The market close is listed as TBD; the platform will post the official close time, trading windows, and any updates on the market page — monitor that page or your account notifications for changes.
Major macro releases and events such as GDP reports, monthly payrolls, CPI/PCE inflation data, central bank meetings and guidance, and large financial stress events typically cause the largest price moves.
The outcome is determined according to the market's specified resolution mechanism (an official agency announcement or the platform's arbiter) and settlement timing is set by the contract — read the resolution and settlement rules on the market page to know which authority decides and when funds will be settled.