| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in Seattle during March 2026; it matters because precipitation outcomes are driven by both seasonal climate patterns and short-term storm activity, which traders can incorporate into pricing. Markets like this aggregate diverse information about weather and climate risk for users and institutions.
Seattle's March sits at the transition from winter to spring, when Pacific storm frequency and intensity often change; historical Marchs tend to be wetter than summer months but show year-to-year variability. Large-scale climate drivers, seasonal forecasts, and the timing of individual atmospheric river events all shape March precipitation. Local measurement choices and the market's precise outcome definitions determine how that variability maps to a settled result.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of when and how much rain will fall, based on available observational and model information; interpret prices as the market's consensus signal rather than a weather forecast issued by a single agency.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined category specified on the KALSHI market page — typically ranges or counts tied to measured precipitation during March 2026 in the designated observation dataset; check the market description for the exact category boundaries used for settlement.
Settlement will use the authoritative data source named on the KALSHI market page — commonly an official meteorological dataset such as an NWS/NOAA station record or a specified local observing site — and the market resolves according to that source's reported measurements.
Resolution occurs after the observation period ends once the specified official dataset publishes the March 2026 values; the exact settlement timing is set by KALSHI and will be posted on the market page.
Use historical March climatology as context for typical seasonal conditions, but combine that with current seasonal outlooks and recent model trends because year-to-year variability and episodic storms can materially change outcomes from climatological averages.
Monitor seasonal outlooks (ENSO updates), medium- and short-range numerical model ensembles (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), regional NWS forecasts and discussions for Western Washington, local observing stations for real-time precipitation, and the KALSHI market page for settlement rules and any updates.