| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in San Francisco during March 2026. It matters because March rainfall affects water supply forecasts, urban transportation planning, and event scheduling in the region.
San Francisco sits in a Mediterranean-climate zone where late winter and early spring are the tail end of the wet season; interannual variability can make March either relatively dry or still influenced by wet Pacific storms. Large-scale drivers such as ENSO, the strength and track of Pacific storm systems (including atmospheric rivers), and coastal sea surface temperatures commonly shape March precipitation outcomes. Historical March totals vary year to year, so forecasts combine seasonal outlooks with short-term model guidance.
Market prices aggregate traders’ information and views about whether official observing stations will record rain in San Francisco during March 2026; they update as forecasts and observations change and are a snapshot of collective belief, not a weather forecast guarantee.
The contract text on the market page specifies the resolution definition, typically referencing measurable precipitation recorded at a named official observing station and a threshold (e.g., trace vs measurable). Always check the market’s resolution clause to see which station and threshold will be used.
Resolution commonly relies on official station reports and quality-controlled monthly summaries provided by agencies such as National Weather Service / NOAA or a designated local observing site; the exchange’s rules will state the accepted sources.
ENSO phases influence the probability and pattern of Pacific storm activity, which can tilt seasonal odds toward wetter or drier outcomes, but they are one of several factors—short-term storm tracks and atmospheric river occurrences are also decisive for any given March.
Yes. Rainfall can be highly localized across the Bay Area; the market outcome depends on the specific observing location named in the contract, so conditions in other neighborhoods may not match the official measurement used for resolution.
Resolution typically occurs after the month ends once official observations are available and any necessary quality-control is completed. Resolution can be delayed by late data reporting, station maintenance issues, or formal disputes per the exchange’s resolution procedures.