| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether measurable precipitation will occur in San Francisco during the month of April 2026. It serves as a data-driven tool for analyzing local meteorological trends and climate variability in the Bay Area.
April in San Francisco marks the tail end of the traditional rainy season, often serving as a transition period toward the city's characteristically dry summer months. Historical rainfall patterns in April are highly variable, influenced by the shifting position of the Pacific jet stream and the frequency of late-season atmospheric river events. These fluctuations make regional water management and agricultural planning highly sensitive to spring moisture levels.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of weather outcomes, reflecting historical climatological data and meteorological forecasting models synthesized by participants.
The resolution of this event is typically determined by the official daily precipitation records provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) at the designated San Francisco reporting station.
Usually, any recorded amount of precipitation (e.g., 0.01 inches or greater) as measured by the official gauge is sufficient to categorize the day as a rainy day.
April is a shoulder month; as the season progresses, the likelihood of significant precipitation generally decreases, creating high sensitivity to the timing of the final storm systems of the year.
This market specifically tracks the occurrence of rain within the specified timeframe, regardless of the total accumulation volume.
Yes, the market relies on standardized reporting from official San Francisco meteorological observation sites, which represent the city's microclimate.