| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks whether measurable rain will occur in New York City during March 2026; it matters to weather-sensitive planners, event organizers, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability. Markets like this aggregate diverse information into a single, tradable signal that updates as forecasts change.
March is a transition month in the northeastern U.S., when lingering winter storms, nor'easters, and spring storm systems can all produce precipitation; year-to-year variability is large. Official daily observations in New York City come from a small set of monitoring sites (airport stations, Central Park, etc.), and those historical records and operational forecasts from agencies such as the National Weather Service are typically used to judge outcomes. Longer-term trends in atmospheric moisture and storm tracks can subtly shift seasonal precipitation patterns but do not determine day-to-day weather.
Market prices reflect the collective beliefs of traders and forecasters, updating as new model runs, satellite data, and surface observations arrive. Treat the market as a real‑time summary of evolving information rather than a definitive forecast.
The phrase 'Mar 2026' normally refers to the calendar month of March 1–31, 2026; the market's official rules page will state the precise start and end times used for resolution.
Resolution depends on the market's specified measurement threshold and designated observing station(s); many weather markets use official, quality‑controlled station reports (for example, a designated NWS station) and define rain as any measurable liquid precipitation, but you must check the market rules to see the exact definition and station named for this specific market.
The platform sets the close time, which is listed on the market page; if it is marked TBD, the platform will announce the closing timestamp before trades are halted—markets commonly close before the event window begins or at a published cutoff.
Markets typically cite authoritative meteorological sources such as National Weather Service/NOAA station reports, cooperative observer networks, or other named datasets; the market's resolution text lists the authoritative source(s) that will be used for final determination.
New short‑range model runs showing storm development, issuance of official forecasts or watches, sudden shifts in storm track, surprising observational reports from upstream areas, and concentrated trading activity by informed participants can all drive rapid price changes.