| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in New York City during April 2026; it matters because short-term weather outcomes influence travel, events, and urban operations. Market prices summarize collective expectations and can update quickly as forecast data arrives.
April in New York City is a transitional month between late winter storms and spring patterns, producing highly variable conditions from dry spells to rain-producing fronts. Seasonal influences such as large-scale ocean–atmosphere patterns and the timing of frontal passages govern the likelihood of measurable precipitation in any given April. Historical Aprils vary widely, so outcomes often hinge on a few synoptic events rather than a steady seasonal signal.
Market odds reflect traders’ aggregation of real-time forecast information and expectations about which outcome will match the settlement definition; interpret them as the market’s collective best read at that moment, which can change as new observations and model runs arrive.
Settlement will follow the contract's defined event language and specified observing dataset or station; check the market's official terms to see whether it uses a particular weather station (for example, a Central Park or NWS station) and how 'rain' or 'measurable precipitation' is defined.
This market lists four mutually exclusive outcomes; their specific labels and thresholds are shown on the market page and determine which outcome will be declared the winner at settlement.
The market close and settlement timing are listed on the market page; currently the close is listed as TBD, so consult the exchange interface for updates and the official settlement timeline in the contract terms.
Settlement generally relies on official meteorological observations as specified in the contract — commonly national weather service station reports, automated surface observing systems, or an agreed dataset — so confirm the exact source in the market's settlement clause.
Follow synoptic-scale model guidance (ensemble and deterministic runs from major centers), short-range radar and precipitation analyses, NWS forecast discussions for the NYC area, and updates to seasonal outlooks; sudden changes in model consensus or the arrival of a frontal system are the most important near-term signals.