| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in Miami during March 2026; it matters because expectations about precipitation affect travel, outdoor events, municipal planning, and weather-sensitive economic activity. The market aggregates traders' real‑time views about March weather conditions in Miami.
March sits near the end of Miami's drier season, so climatology gives lower average rainfall than the summer months, but interannual variability (for example ENSO) and passing frontal systems can produce wet spells. The contract offered here has seven discrete outcomes and is still open with the close date listed as TBD; current traded volume can indicate available liquidity but not future price movement. Participants should consult the market's resolution clause to see which observational dataset and station will determine the outcome.
Market odds are a dynamic, crowd‑sourced summary of traders' expectations and react to new forecasts and observed weather; treat them as a continually updating signal rather than a fixed prediction.
Most month‑based weather contracts use the calendar month (March 1–31, 2026) and a defined measurable precipitation threshold; however, the authoritative definition for this specific market — including the exact dates, threshold for 'rain', and the official reporting period — is specified in the market's resolution clause, so check that text on the event page.
The market's resolution clause names the authoritative source and station (for example an NWS observation station or a specific dataset). Always consult that clause because resolution will follow the listed observational record rather than informal forecasts or third‑party summaries.
Each outcome corresponds to a pre‑defined category or rainfall range as shown on the event page; review the outcome labels and the resolution rules to see the exact boundaries and how ties or borderline observations are handled.
The close date is currently listed as TBD; the platform will update the event page when a firm close time is set and may provide notification options—monitor the market page or enable platform alerts to receive updates.
Significant model ensemble shifts, official forecast updates from the National Weather Service, the development or dissipation of a tropical feature that could affect South Florida, and real‑time observation anomalies (e.g., an unusually wet or dry late‑February) are the kinds of events that typically produce the largest and fastest market moves.