| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable precipitation will be observed in Los Angeles during March 2026; it matters because March rainfall affects reservoir replenishment, wildfire risk heading into the dry season, and short-term urban impacts.
Los Angeles has a Mediterranean climate with most annual rain falling in the November–April season; March is a transitional month that can produce anything from dry, springlike conditions to late-season storms. Interannual variability is large—drivers such as ENSO phase and the presence or absence of atmospheric rivers strongly influence whether March is wet or dry. Recent multi-year droughts and evolving water management priorities make March precipitation outcomes more consequential for planners and markets.
Market prices aggregate traders' information, short-term weather forecasts, and climatological expectations into a single indicator of market consensus; they update as new model forecasts and observations arrive. Treat market odds as a real-time synthesis of available information rather than as a formal meteorological forecast from a national agency.
Resolution follows the market's official rules: outcomes are based on measurements from the specified official observing station(s) or consolidated dataset referenced by the contract; in general the market looks for measurable precipitation as reported by that authoritative source for the location(s) named in the contract.
The event covers the calendar month of March 2026; the window begins at the start of March 1 local time and ends at the close of March 31 local time, with resolution based on official daily totals posted for that period per the exchange rules.
The contract's rule page specifies the authoritative source (typically an NWS/NOAA station or a named climate archive); consult the market's resolution rules to see the exact station(s) or dataset used for Los Angeles measurements.
El Niño conditions tend to shift storm tracks and can increase the likelihood of southern California storms in winter, while individual atmospheric rivers deliver concentrated precipitation when they make landfall; both increase the odds of measurable March rain when they are present, but timing, storm track, and local dynamics determine actual impacts.
Resolution timing depends on when the chosen authoritative data provider publishes final daily totals—markets typically wait for official postings and then apply any exchange-specific dispute or challenge window described in the rules; check the market's resolution policy for exact timelines and procedures.