| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether measurable precipitation will occur in Los Angeles, California, during the month of April 2026. It serves as a financial instrument for hedging against weather-related risks and climate variability in Southern California.
April in Los Angeles marks the transition from the rainy season to the dry season, making it a month of significant meteorological uncertainty. Historically, the area experiences high variability in rainfall, heavily influenced by broader oceanic patterns like El Niño and La Niña which dictate storm tracks across the Pacific.
The market prices reflect the aggregate wisdom of participants regarding meteorological models, climate trends, and historical precipitation averages for the region.
The market utilizes official records from the National Weather Service (NWS) as recorded at the designated LAX observation station.
Typically, the market follows standard meteorological definitions where 'measurable precipitation'—usually 0.01 inches or more—is required to satisfy the criteria.
April is a shoulder month; while early April can see lingering winter storms, the probability of rainfall typically declines significantly as the month progresses.
This timeframe allows participants to analyze long-range seasonal forecasts that are often released 12-18 months in advance by global climate agencies.
As long as the total recorded precipitation for the month meets the minimum threshold for a 'rainy' outcome according to the contract specifications, the event is considered to have occurred.