| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks whether measurable rain will occur in Houston during March 2026; it matters because markets aggregate diverse information and can signal how traders interpret weather forecasts and risks for that month. The outcome can be useful to hedgers and weather-aware planners in the region.
Houston's March climate sits near the transition between winter and spring when frontal systems, Gulf moisture, and occasional convective storms each can produce measurable precipitation. Historical variability is high in March—some years are quite dry while others see multiple rain events—so both seasonal drivers and short‑term weather patterns matter. Forecasters rely on a mix of long‑lead climate signals and short‑range numerical weather prediction to form outlooks for a particular month.
Market prices reflect the collective judgement of participants about the likelihood of the contract's specific settlement condition being met; they are a dynamic, continuously updated indicator of perceived chance rather than a weather forecast by itself. Check the contract terms to understand exactly what observation (station, threshold, and time window) the market uses for settlement.
The precise settlement definition is set in the market's contract terms; it typically specifies a threshold (e.g., measurable precipitation) and a defined observing station or dataset for Houston. Always consult the market's official description to confirm the exact station, threshold, and time period used to determine the outcome.
Close and settlement timing are determined by the exchange and by when the relevant observation period ends; because the listing shows 'Closes: TBD', check the market page for updates or announcements from the exchange for the final close time and the expected settlement publication schedule.
Short‑term forecasts (0–10 days) and current observational trends are most informative for specific rain events that will occur in March, while seasonal outlooks and climate signals provide background about increased or decreased odds across the whole month. Use a combination: watch model ensembles and radars for imminent events and monitor seasonal indicators for baseline expectations.
Relevant sources include National Weather Service (local forecast office and official precipitation records), airport/ASOS station precipitation reports for the specified settlement location, high‑resolution NWP ensembles (GFS, ECMWF, HRRR), radar and satellite observations, and authoritative climate outlooks (NOAA/NCEP) for background guidance.
El Niño/La Niña influence typical storm tracks and moisture distribution over North America; they can bias seasonal tendencies toward wetter or drier conditions in parts of the southern U.S., including Texas, but they do not determine weather for a specific month alone. Treat these patterns as background modifiers that change the odds of certain synoptic setups rather than as deterministic predictors for a single month's rain.