| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in Dallas during March 2026. It matters because short-term weather outcomes are driven by observable meteorology and are of interest to traders hedging weather exposure or speculating on near-term climate variability.
Dallas sits in a spring transitional zone where precipitation is driven by frontal passages, Gulf moisture surges, and convection; March is typically variable from year to year. Large-scale climate patterns (for example ENSO phase, Gulf sea-surface temperatures, and transient atmospheric waves) and synoptic storm tracks determine whether a given March will be unusually wet or dry.
Market prices reflect aggregated beliefs of traders about the event as defined by the market’s resolution rules; they update as new weather forecasts and observations arrive. Use prices as a real-time signal of expected outcomes, but verify contract definitions and resolution sources before trading.
Settlement depends on the market’s official rules: typically a measurable precipitation observation at a specified official station or dataset (for example NWS automatic stations or NCEI records). Check the market page’s resolution clause to see the exact station, threshold for ‘rain’, and authoritative data source used for settlement.
The market’s close time is listed as TBD on the event page; resolution generally occurs after the end of March 2026 once the authoritative observational record for the contract’s specified station and period is available. The exact timing will follow the exchange’s published resolution procedures.
Authors of contracts commonly reference official NWS observing sites (such as Dallas/Fort Worth or Dallas Love Field) and national climate datasets maintained by NCEI or the National Weather Service. The market’s resolution text names the authoritative station or dataset—use that to confirm which observations will count.
Consider historical March climatology for north Texas (a transitional month with variable totals), the typical frequency of Gulf moisture intrusions and frontal systems, and recent multi-year trends that may affect background moisture and storminess. Historical normals provide context but do not determine a specific month’s outcome.
Key signals include the ENSO state (El Niño or La Niña tendencies), Madden–Julian Oscillation phases that alter storm tracks on subseasonal timescales, Pacific and Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies, and teleconnection patterns (e.g., North Pacific or Arctic oscillations) that affect the jet stream over North America.