| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in Chicago during March 2026 and matters because precipitation outcomes affect transportation, outdoor events, and short-term economic activity in the region.
March is a transitional month in Chicago between winter and spring, so outcomes depend on the timing of storm systems and temperature profiles that determine rain versus snow. Longer-term shifts in seasonal patterns and variability from large-scale climate drivers can alter how likely wet or dry March conditions are compared with past decades.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and expectations about likely weather outcomes and update as new observational and model data arrive; use them as a real-time consensus indicator rather than a deterministic forecast.
Settlement periods are defined in the contract specification on the market page; typically a monthly contract covers the calendar month in a specified timezone (for example, from 00:00 on March 1 to 23:59 on March 31), so check the event's settlement rules for the authoritative timestamps.
The seven outcomes correspond to the distinct categories or thresholds defined by this contract (for example, different precipitation ranges or discrete yes/no categories); consult the outcome labels on the market page to see the exact definitions used for settlement.
The contract's settlement clause names the official data source and station(s) used (for example, a specific NOAA/NWS station or an aggregated dataset); always verify the named source in the market description because settlement uses that authoritative record.
Markets follow the final data product specified in the settlement rules; if the chosen source issues post-event corrections, the contract will state whether it uses preliminary reports or final quality-controlled datasets, so review those terms to understand how revisions affect settlement.
Volume indicates trader interest and liquidity for this specific event: higher activity generally means tighter trading and more information reflected in prices, while low volume can make prices more sensitive to individual trades; check the market page for live volume and order book depth before trading.