| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the total precipitation in Chicago during April 2026, serving as a tool for hedging against weather-related operational risks. It provides a standardized way to quantify climate expectations for the Chicago metropolitan area.
April in Chicago is historically a transitional month characterized by significant variability in precipitation due to the clash of lingering cold air masses and the arrival of warmer spring conditions. Regional climate patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation or residual effects from ENSO cycles, can cause monthly rainfall totals to deviate significantly from long-term historical averages. Meteorologists rely on complex modeling to forecast these trends, as Chicago’s proximity to Lake Michigan frequently influences local moisture distribution.
Market prices represent the collective consensus on the probability of specific rainfall ranges occurring, reflecting real-time meteorology data and historical variance models.
The official record is typically derived from the National Weather Service (NWS) observation station at Chicago O'Hare International Airport.
The total is measured as the liquid water equivalent of all precipitation, including rainfall and the melted content of any wintry mix.
The market accounts for the total measured precipitation; extreme storms are captured within the recorded official data for the month.
Yes, outcomes are segmented into defined numerical brackets of total precipitation, reflecting different potential climate scenarios.
Chicago's spring weather is highly sensitive to the exact path of low-pressure systems moving across the central United States, leading to significant inter-annual volatility.