| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in Austin during March 2026; it matters because March precipitation affects water resources, outdoor events, agriculture, and short-term flood risk in the region.
Austin sits in a climatically variable transition month in March, when cold fronts from the north and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico commonly interact to produce variable rainfall. Historical Marchs show strong year-to-year swings in timing and intensity of rain, and ongoing climate trends can alter the frequency and extremes of precipitation.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about whether the contract's settlement criteria will be met and will shift as forecasts, model guidance, and observations update; consult the contract page for the precise resolution rules that determine final settlement.
Settlement depends on the contract's resolution language and the official data source specified on the market page; check that page to see which station, gauge, or dataset and what accumulation threshold (if any) are used to determine a 'yes' outcome.
The market lists a closing time as TBD; traders should monitor the market page for an announced close and be aware that close timing relative to forecast updates or the start of March can materially affect available information for trades.
Market participants commonly watch NWS/Austin-San Antonio forecasts, national centers (e.g., NCEP products), major global models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), regional high-resolution ensembles, and real-time radar/satellite; official observational updates used for settlement will be specified on the contract.
Use historical March variability as context: March is a transitional month with substantial interannual variability, so prior years' patterns can offer perspective but do not predict specific synoptic setups that will determine rain in a given year.
Unusual drivers can rapidly increase the chance of measurable rain and provoke swift price moves; traders should track tropical forecasts, Gulf disturbances, and synoptic changes in real time, while remembering that final settlement follows the contract's published data source and criteria.