| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 inch | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 2 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 6 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 7 inches | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the total accumulated rainfall in Austin, Texas, during the month of April 2026. These outcomes provide a financial instrument for hedging against precipitation-related risks or speculating on long-term climate patterns in Central Texas.
April is traditionally a transition month in Austin, often marked by the onset of the spring rainy season and the potential for severe convective storms. Historically, rainfall totals in this region during April are highly variable, influenced by localized storm systems and broader atmospheric oscillations. Climatological data for this month is essential for local agriculture, municipal water management, and event planning.
Market participants aggregate available meteorological forecasts and historical climate data to price the likelihood of different rainfall ranges. Shifts in market sentiment often reflect updates from long-range weather models or emerging climate trends.
The market typically relies on official observations from the National Weather Service (NWS) station at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport.
It is defined as the total accumulated liquid precipitation (measured in inches) recorded at the designated official weather station throughout the calendar month of April 2026.
Flash floods and heavy localized thunderstorms count toward the final monthly accumulation total recorded by the official reporting station.
Yes, the contract specifically references official measurements taken within Austin, Texas, meaning rainfall in neighboring counties or suburbs may not be reflected in the final data.
In the event of sensor failure or missing official reports, market rules generally default to the backup reporting authority or the most reliable historical reconciliation method established in the contract terms.