| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above CPI YoY | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) year‑over‑year change will exceed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year‑over‑year change for at least three consecutive months during calendar year 2026. That outcome matters because sustained PPI > CPI can signal upstream cost pressures that may pass through to consumer prices, influencing markets and monetary policy expectations.
PPI measures prices received by producers while CPI measures prices paid by consumers; PPI can lead CPI when input cost shocks transmit through supply chains. Historically, periods when PPI outpaces CPI have been associated with commodity price spikes, supply disruptions, or shifts in producer margins. Ongoing 2026 developments—commodity markets, supply-chain dynamics, and central bank policy—will determine whether such a consecutive-month streak occurs.
Prediction market prices aggregate trader views about the likelihood of the defined outcome and adjust as new monthly PPI/CPI releases and macro data arrive. Use market odds as a timely summary of expectations, not as a substitute for checking the official published series and event resolution rules.
The comparison typically uses the official monthly BLS published year‑over‑year change for the U.S. Producer Price Index (commonly the PPI for Final Demand) versus the BLS monthly year‑over‑year change for the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI‑U, all items). Always confirm the market's official rules for the exact series used.
Consecutive refers to back‑to‑back calendar months within January–December 2026 where each month's published PPI YoY strictly exceeds that month's published CPI YoY. The streak must occur during the 2026 calendar year unless the market rules indicate otherwise.
Both PPI and CPI are released monthly by the BLS, generally in the middle of the month for the prior month's data; exact dates follow the BLS release calendar for 2026. The market will use the published monthly figures according to its settlement schedule, so monitor the BLS calendar and the market's announcement dates.
Settlement depends on the market's stated data policy: many markets use the initial published BLS monthly figures for settlement, while some may specify using revised or final series. Check the event's resolution rules; absent a special rule, later BLS revisions typically do not retroactively change prior published values used for settling a resolved outcome.
No. The condition requires PPI YoY to be strictly greater than CPI YoY. A month where PPI YoY equals CPI YoY or where either series is missing or withheld breaks the consecutive sequence, unless the market's official resolution policy specifies an alternative treatment.