| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before May 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before December | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before November | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before September | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before August | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This market asks whether Jerome Powell will no longer serve as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the contract's settlement conditions. The outcome matters because changes in Fed leadership can affect monetary policy expectations, financial markets, and political dynamics.
The Fed Chair is appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate for four‑year terms; departures can occur via non‑renewal, resignation, or extraordinary removal. Political cycles, administration preferences, and economic conditions all shape decisions about renomination or replacement.
Market prices aggregate traders’ views about the likelihood and timing of Powell leaving the chairmanship as defined by the contract’s resolution rules. Always review the specific contract text for the settlement date and the exact trigger used to determine the outcome.
Resolution depends on the contract’s stated criteria — typically an official, public announcement or record showing Powell is no longer serving as Chair by the contract’s settlement date. Check the platform’s contract description for the precise trigger and acceptable sources for verification.
'Closes: TBD' means the platform has not yet set the contract’s final settlement or trading cutoff date. Traders should monitor the market page and official notices for the closure date because the window for trading and the applicable settlement period will be defined then.
The President (who nominates or declines to renominate), Senate leaders and individual senators (who confirm nominees), Powell himself (if he resigns), and senior White House or Treasury officials who shape the administration’s personnel decisions.
The Chair is a presidential appointee confirmed by the Senate; in practice, replacement usually occurs through non‑renewal or a new nomination. Forced removal before term would be highly unusual and legally complex, so market watchers focus on nomination/confirmation actions, resignations, and public announcements.
Follow official White House and Federal Reserve statements, nomination or confirmation paperwork, Senate hearing schedules and votes, public remarks by Powell, and major economic releases that could shift political incentives or the administration’s preferences.