| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $445,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $447,500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $440,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $435,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $450,000 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $432,500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $442,500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above $437,500 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which price range the Phoenix metro area's typical home value will be in February 2026. It matters because that value summarizes local housing affordability, investor sentiment, and regional economic conditions at a specific point in time.
Phoenix has been a high-interest region for homebuyers and investors due to strong population growth and employment expansion in recent years; these dynamics interact with construction activity, land-use rules, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Between now and Feb 2026, changes in mortgage costs, supply of homes, and migration patterns are the main channels that will drive movements in the typical home value.
Market prices (odds) reflect traders' collective assessment of which outcome range is most likely given current information; shifts in those prices represent new information or changing expectations. Always check the contract description to see exactly which index or measure will be used for settlement.
The contract's official description on the trading platform specifies the precise series (for example, a stated index or median sale-price metric), its geographic definition for the Phoenix metro, and any smoothing or seasonal adjustments; check the contract page to see the authoritative definition that will be used for settlement.
This market offers eight mutually exclusive outcome ranges, each representing a specific price bucket for the Phoenix metro area's typical home value in Feb 2026; the contract page lists the numeric endpoints for each bucket and which bucket will win at settlement.
The market operator sets the trading close (currently listed as TBD); settlement will use the published value of the specified data series for February 2026 according to the contract's settlement rules, so confirm the published cutoff time and any data-release lags on the market page.
Watch U.S. monetary policy announcements and mortgage-rate movements, Phoenix-area employment and payroll reports, housing starts and permits, existing-home sales and inventory, regional migration and population updates, and major local policy or infrastructure news—each can meaningfully change expectations for Feb 2026.
Unexpected events can shift demand or supply rapidly and thus alter the likely settled value; their effect depends on timing relative to the February 2026 measurement and whether the event is captured in the specific data series used for settlement—markets will typically price such information as it becomes public.