| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether Pete Hegseth will remain in his position as Secretary of Defense or exit the role within a specified timeframe. It serves as a gauge for market participants' expectations regarding the stability of the current cabinet-level appointment.
Pete Hegseth was nominated for Secretary of Defense to lead the Department of Defense, a role requiring Senate confirmation. His tenure is subject to intense public, political, and media scrutiny, which can impact his standing within the administration. This market reflects ongoing political assessments of his leadership and the likelihood of a leadership transition in the Pentagon.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants regarding the likelihood of Hegseth's departure, with fluctuations signaling changing sentiment based on new political developments.
An 'out' typically refers to his resignation, termination, or formal withdrawal of his nomination before confirmation.
Yes, a failure to secure Senate confirmation would be a primary driver for an 'out' outcome in this market.
Both voluntary resignation and involuntary removal generally count as the event occurring, provided they happen within the specified timeframe.
Delays or extensions in the confirmation schedule may influence the market as participants reassess the timeline of his potential tenure.
The market is bound by the specific expiration date set by the exchange, after which positions are settled based on his status at that time.