| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike 1-10 bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut more than 10 bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cut 1-10 bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hike more than 10 bps | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks how the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will act on interest rates in March; its outcome matters for borrowing costs, Chinese financial markets, and global capital flows.
The PBoC has used a mix of headline rate settings and targeted liquidity tools to balance growth, inflation, and financial stability. Recent Chinese policy has weighed support for the property sector and growth against price pressures and currency stability, so markets watch March decisions for signs of policy direction.
Prediction market prices here reflect traders' collective expectations about the March decision and update as incoming data and official signals arrive; they are indicators of market sentiment, not official forecasts.
Settlement typically occurs after the PBoC publishes its official decision and any accompanying statement; the exact timing depends on when the announcement is made and when the market operator confirms settlement rules.
The market covers a set of mutually exclusive outcomes representing the most likely policy responses (for example: hold, various sizes or types of easing/tightening, or use of alternative liquidity tools); check the market page for the precise labels used to map each outcome to policy actions.
Traders monitor statements and speeches from the governor, senior PBoC deputies, and official monetary policy reports, as well as coordinated guidance from other economic agencies that signal tolerance for easing or insistence on stability.
The PBoC can use reserve requirement ratio adjustments, targeted medium‑term lending operations, open market operations, and window guidance to achieve easing or tightening without moving a headline rate; if an outcome option is tied only to a headline rate move, alternative-tool actions can still influence market pricing if they are perceived as equivalent policy easing or tightening.
Near-term domestic releases (monthly activity and inflation data), sudden developments in the property sector or local government debt, and major external shocks such as rapid moves in US Fed policy or a sharp currency move would be the most likely catalysts to change market expectations.