| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Grégoire | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sarah Knafo | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rachida Dati | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which listed candidate will finish first in the first round of the Paris mayoral election; first-round placement is important because it determines which candidates advance to the runoff and shapes post-first-round bargaining.
Paris mayoral contests take place in a multi-party, arrondissement-by-arrondissement electoral environment where local issues and national politics interact. Historically, vote fragmentation, turnout differences across neighborhoods, and strategic withdrawals or alliances between rounds have strongly influenced first-round outcomes. The market aggregates trader views about which candidate will lead that first round.
Prices in this market represent the collective assessment of traders about which listed outcome will win the first round and will move as new information arrives (polls, endorsements, turnout signals). Use price movements as real-time information but remember markets reflect opinions, not guarantees.
The market's official close time is set by the platform and is currently listed as TBD; it typically closes at or shortly before official first-round voting concludes or when the market operator specifies. Check the market page for the exact close time and any updates tied to the election schedule.
This market offers three named outcomes corresponding to the candidates listed on the market's page; traders should verify the exact labels on that page, as resolution will follow the platform's stated outcome names.
Withdrawals and alliances can shift voter intentions and thus market prices, since they change the effective field and tactical voting dynamics; whether a withdrawal changes market resolution depends on timing and the platform's rules (for example, whether ballots have already been finalized).
Relevant patterns include strong variation in support by arrondissement, the impact of vote splitting among ideologically similar candidates, the advantage of well-known incumbents or figures with citywide recognition, and the outsized effect of turnout swings in key neighborhoods.
Treat late developments as fresh information that can move the market quickly, but assess their credibility, likely impact on turnout and tactical voting, and the time left before market close; also consider market liquidity and whether prices already reflect similar signals.