| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market is a short-term forecast for the air temperature in New York City at 9:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 27, 2026. Outcomes provide a tradable way to express and hedge expectations about that specific observation.
Late March in New York sits near the seasonal transition from winter to spring, producing substantial day-to-day variability driven by passing fronts, coastal influence, and cloud cover. Forecast models, real-time observations, and local effects such as the urban heat island all matter; markets typically move as model runs and observations are updated in the days and hours before the timestamp.
Market prices aggregate trader beliefs about which predefined temperature range will be observed; higher prices indicate stronger market support for a particular outcome. Treat prices as a live signal that reflects forecasts, incoming data, and participant risk preferences rather than a fixed measure of truth.
The event specifies 9:00 AM EDT (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-4) on March 27, 2026; settlement will use the temperature recorded at that timestamp by the designated official observation source.
The market rules or event description should list the official station or data provider (for example, an NWS/NOAA station such as Central Park, LaGuardia, or another specified site). If the event page does not name a source, consult the platform's settlement policy or contact support for the designated source.
Each of the seven outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature interval shown on the event page; settlement uses the reported temperature and applies the rounding or binning method stated in the market description. Check the outcome labels on the market page for the exact numeric boundaries and any rounding rules.
Settlement timing depends on the platform's verification and quality-control process: it typically awaits publication of the official observation and any necessary validation before declaring the winning outcome. The event page or platform rules will indicate expected settlement windows; contact support if the timeline is unclear.
Zero or low trading volume means prices may be thinly traded and potentially driven by few participants, so they provide a weaker signal than a liquid market. Expect higher volatility and less confidence in price-derived information until more participants trade or external forecasts update.