| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 8:00 AM EDT on March 27, 2026, and is useful for traders who want to express views on short‑term weather outcomes. Outcomes can matter for energy demand, travel planning, and weather-sensitive operations in the NYC area.
Late March is a transitional time from winter to spring in the New York City region, so temperature outcomes can swing depending on the synoptic pattern, coastal influence, and recent weather trends. Short‑term forecast skill is generally good within a few days, but the precise timing of fronts, cloud cover, and onshore winds can produce substantial differences at a specific hour.
Market odds aggregate traders' views about which temperature range or bucket is most likely at the settlement time; they reflect the balance of market positions rather than a deterministic forecast. Use market prices alongside physical forecasts and local observations when forming your own view.
The market's settlement specification on the exchange page lists the official data source and station used for settlement; check that contract text. If the market page is ambiguous, follow the exchange's published settlement rules, which typically reference an official NWS/NOAA observation for a defined NYC location (for example a specified airport or Central Park station).
Settlement uses the single official recorded air temperature at 8:00 AM EDT from the named source; the exchange will publish the resolved outcome after the reporting agency posts the observation and the exchange completes its verification process. Consult the market page for the exchange's timeline and any allowed data corrections.
The event specifies 8:00 AM EDT; in late March U.S. eastern time is on daylight saving time, so align model output and station data to Eastern Daylight Time when preparing forecasts for this market. Verify time stamps on model runs and observation logs to avoid off‑by‑one‑hour errors.
Use short‑range NWP models and ensemble guidance (24–72 hour window) to capture frontal timing, high‑resolution mesoscale models for coastal effects, recent surface observations from nearby stations, and radar/satellite to track clouds and precipitation overnight. Local MET office forecasts and model blends can also help for fine‑scale timing.
Temperatures can differ across observation sites due to urban heat island, proximity to the harbor/Atlantic, elevation, and surface conditions (e.g., snow or wet pavement). Before trading, confirm which site the contract uses and consider local microclimate effects relative to broader model guidance.