| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be recorded in New York City at 7:00 AM EDT on March 27, 2026, and matters for traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and event planners who care about overnight and early-morning conditions. It provides a focused, short-term contract tied to a specific meteorological measurement.
Late March is a transitional period in the northeastern U.S., when nights can still be chilly but spring warmth becomes increasingly common; large swings are driven by the timing of cold-air intrusions, coastal systems, and cloud cover. Long-term climate trends have shifted the distribution of temperatures, but day-to-day outcomes remain dominated by synoptic weather patterns and local effects.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as weather models, observations, and news arrive; interpret prices as a real-time synthesis of available forecasts rather than a single definitive forecast. Because odds move with incoming data, always check the market page and official settlement rules for the source of the measurement.
The contract will be settled according to the market's posted settlement source and rules; consult the listing for the specified observing station or dataset (for example, an NWS official station or a named airport METAR) that the platform will use.
Closing times are set by the platform and shown on the market page (the listing currently shows an open/unspecified close); while the market is open, prices will move as late forecasts and observations arrive, but after the official close no further trades will affect settlement.
Short-range operational models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS, high-resolution models like HRRR/NAM) plus current METARs, airport observations, local NWS forecasts, soundings, satellite and radar imagery all inform traders and therefore influence market prices.
Urban heat retention often keeps central city temperatures higher overnight than nearby rural areas, while proximity to the harbor and sound can moderate lows; cloud cover and wind can either amplify or mute these local influences before the 7 AM observation.
Actual measured temperature will determine settlement; in cases of instrument failure or other anomalies the platform's dispute and settlement procedures apply and the market listing will explain fallback data sources or special handling.