| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the official air temperature in New York City will be at 6:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 27, 2026. It matters to traders and to people with weather-sensitive operations (transportation, energy, outdoor events) who care about early-morning conditions on that date.
Late March in New York is a transitional period between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing depending on synoptic-scale patterns, recent fronts, and cloud cover. Prediction markets for single-time observations are useful because they aggregate real-time forecast updates, observational reports, and local effects into a single market price signal.
Market prices for each outcome represent the crowd’s current assessment of which temperature range will be observed at the specified time; price changes reflect new model runs, observations, and changing meteorological conditions. Treat outcomes as mutually exclusive bins: only the outcome corresponding to the official measured temperature at 06:00 EDT will settle as correct.
Settlement depends on the contract’s resolution clause; most weather markets specify an official observing station and data source (for example an NWS/NOAA ASOS or METAR) and use the reported air temperature at exactly 06:00:00 local time on the specified date. Check the event page for the named source; if it’s not listed, contact the exchange for clarification before trading.
Yes—6am EDT is 06:00 Eastern Daylight Time (the local clock in New York for late March). Because DST is in effect by late March in the U.S., the market time is local wall-clock time; verify the event text if you need UTC conversion for model or instrument data.
The seven outcomes are discrete, contiguous temperature bins that cover the full plausible range; only the single bin containing the official observed temperature at 06:00 EDT on March 27, 2026 will be declared the winning outcome. Read the contract specification for the exact numeric boundaries of each bin before trading.
Monitor short-range NWP guidance (high-resolution models), surface observations (METAR/ASOS), satellite/cloud cover, frontal passages, overnight precipitation or snow cover, and wind direction changes (onshore vs. offshore). Rapid changes in cloud cover or a late-arriving front overnight are common drivers of last-hour temperature changes.
If the event page shows 'Closes: TBD', the exchange has not set the market’s trading deadline yet; typically trading closes shortly before the specified observation time or at the moment the exchange defines. Settlement usually occurs after the official temperature is published and validated, which can take some hours; watch the market page for updates on both the trading close and final settlement timing.