| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be on March 27, 2026 at 5:00 a.m. EDT; it matters to traders, weather-dependent businesses, and anyone hedging exposure to overnight temperature conditions.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period: some years still experience cold, late-winter air masses while others are already on a spring warming trend. Seasonal climate factors (e.g., long-term warming trends) set a baseline, but short-term synoptic weather systems determine the specific temperature on a given date.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about which temperature range will be observed at the specified time and location, aggregating current forecasts, observations, and new information as it becomes available.
The event's settlement clause on the exchange defines the official data source and measurement method; check the market's rules for the named station and observation type (common choices include National Weather Service stations such as Central Park, LaGuardia, or JFK).
Closure time is set by the platform and is shown on the event page (listed as TBD until set); settlement typically occurs after the official observation is published and may follow the platform's verification timetable, which can be hours to a day later.
Five a.m. is commonly near the overnight minimum temperature; clear skies and calm winds favor stronger radiative cooling (colder readings), while cloud cover and wind tend to keep overnight temperatures milder.
Short-range numerical weather prediction models, surface observations, satellite and radar updates, and local NWS forecasts are the primary inputs that traders use to update expectations as the event approaches.
Contingency procedures are specified in the contract's settlement rules; common fallbacks include using a predefined alternate official station, an NWS quality-controlled observation, or another agreed-upon data source—consult the event's rule section for details.