| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market settles on the observed air temperature in New York City at 4:00 a.m. EDT on March 27, 2026. It matters to traders and participants who want to express or hedge exposure to short‑term weather conditions that can affect energy demand, travel, and event planning.
Late March is a transitional period in the Northeast U.S., so temperatures can swing between late‑winter chill and early‑spring mildness depending on synoptic weather patterns. Settlement depends on a specific observing station and data product defined in the contract, and incoming model runs and observations in the days before the event will drive market movement.
Market prices reflect the consensus view of participants about which temperature outcome will be observed at the specified time and location; price changes typically track new model output, satellite/radar observations, and local weather reports rather than long‑term climate trends.
Settlement uses the specific station and product named in the market's settlement specification—typically an NWS/NOAA hourly observation or a METAR from a named station. Check the contract page for the exact source and station identifier used for settlement.
The seven outcomes correspond to pre‑defined temperature bins or thresholds specified on the event page. Refer to the event listing to see the exact numeric boundaries and how each outcome will be determined.
The event lists its close time as TBD; the exchange will post a final trading cutoff on the contract page. Trading windows can be set to close some hours before the scheduled observation or remain open until shortly before settlement, so monitor the market page for updates.
Late March is climatologically variable in New York City: nights can still be near freezing in some years or noticeably mild in others. Consider recent multi‑day trends, presence of lingering snow cover, and typical variability for that date when forming a view.
Key drivers include operational forecast models (short‑range high‑resolution models and global models), National Weather Service forecasts and observations, METAR/ASOS station reports, radar/satellite for cloud and precipitation evolution, and local forecast office updates. Watch late‑run high‑resolution short‑term guidance in the 0–48 hour window for the biggest impacts.