| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete temperature outcome will be observed in New York City at 3:00 AM EDT on March 27, 2026. It matters because hour‑specific temperatures drive decisions for travel, energy demand, outdoor events, and short‑term weather risk planning.
Late March in New York is a transitional period between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing from cold, overnight readings to mild conditions depending on synoptic weather patterns. Day‑to‑day forecasts rely primarily on short‑range numerical weather prediction, current observations, and recent model performance; seasonal climate signals play a smaller role for a single hour. Historical variability at this time of year is substantial, so small shifts in large‑scale pattern or cloud cover can change the outcome.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which temperature bin will be observed and update as new model runs and observations arrive; they are not guarantees but real‑time summaries of collective belief. Use them alongside official forecasts and station data rather than as the only input for operational decisions.
Settlement timing and the official measurement source are defined in the market's rules on the exchange page; typically settlement uses an official hourly observation from a specified meteorological station or network for that exact hour. Check the contract language on the KALSHI market page to confirm which observing station, dataset, and any averaging or rounding rules will be used.
The market lists a finite set of mutually exclusive outcomes (seven choices for this event) representing temperature bins or exact values; after the official observation for 3:00 AM EDT is released the exchange will determine which outcome contains that observed value according to the contract definitions. Refer to the market outcome labels on the event page for the exact bin boundaries.
Short‑range numerical weather prediction and high‑resolution models strongly influence single‑hour forecasts within about 0–3 days; model consensus and observations become increasingly informative inside that window. That said, meaningful shifts can occur even close to the hour if a front, cloud deck, or local wind change develops.
Traders should consult the observing station(s) specified in the contract (check the market page) and official networks such as National Weather Service METAR/ASOS stations, local airport observations, and the NWS hourly surface data. Supplement those with nearby station reports and validated datasets used by forecasters to understand any local differences.
Microclimates (urban heat island, elevation, proximity to water) can produce systematic differences between a specific station and regional forecasts, especially at night when radiational cooling varies across neighborhoods. Because settlement uses the designated station or dataset specified in the contract, outcomes can diverge from broader-area forecasts if that station sits in a warmer or cooler pocket of the city.