| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 2:00 AM EDT on March 27, 2026. It matters to traders and forecasters because overnight temperatures reflect short-term weather processes and can affect energy demand, transport, and event planning.
Late March is a transitional month in the Northeast U.S., so temperatures can swing between near-winter and mild spring values depending on synoptic systems and local factors. Climate trends, station siting, and urban warming influence the baseline, but day-to-day outcomes are driven primarily by transient weather systems and local radiative effects. For settlement, this market will rely on whatever observational definition the event page and KALSHI specify, so consult those rules before trading.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants about which temperature range will be observed and update as new forecasts and observations arrive. Interpret prices qualitatively — as indicators of consensus and where traders see risk — and be mindful that low volume or sudden news can produce volatile price moves.
The event page and market rules specify the exact observing location and instrument used for settlement; check that official definition on the KALSHI event page. Common choices for NYC markets are standard meteorological observing stations (for example an NWS ASOS or a specific airport or park station), but do not assume which one applies until you verify the event's settlement clause.
Resolution is based on the settlement rules posted with the market: the observed temperature reported by the designated station at the specified time is compared to the outcome ranges and the matching range is declared winning. The rules will also state how temperatures are rounded or truncated and what happens if the station fails to report.
The close time is listed as TBD on the event header; typically platforms close trading at or before the observation time or at a marketplace-specified cutoff. Check the event's official closing rule to know the exact last-trade cutoff and any post-close restrictions.
Historical climatology gives a baseline expectation and helps identify typical variability for late March, but any single date can deviate widely from the norm due to transient weather systems. Use climatology as context, then weight recent model runs, surface observations, and expected synoptic changes more heavily for short-term forecasting.
Late updates from numerical weather prediction models, rapid frontal passages, unexpected cloud clearing or thickening, sudden changes in wind direction (onshore vs. offshore), or station reporting issues can all trigger quick market moves. Also monitor official observations from nearby stations and any alerts from meteorological agencies that might change expectations.