| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 1:00 PM EDT on March 27, 2026. It matters because temperature at a specific time affects energy demand, transportation decisions, outdoor events, and short-term weather-sensitive trades.
Late March in the New York City area is a high-variability period: temperatures can reflect lingering winter cold, early-spring warmth, or rapid change from passing fronts. Day-to-day outcomes are driven by synoptic weather patterns, while long-term trends in climate can shift the baseline distribution of possible temperatures. The event on KALSHI lists seven discrete outcomes and shows 'closes: TBD'—the marketplace page and official rules will state the exact settlement source and closure time.
Market prices aggregate participant beliefs about which temperature outcome will occur at the specified time and place; they are an evolving summary of available information, not a single forecast. For settlement and exact definitions, always consult the market’s official rules and data-source specification.
The market’s official rules and event detail page specify the precise observation source and station used for settlement (e.g., a National Weather Service station or a specific airport/park thermometer). Check that section before trading because choice of station can materially change the settled value.
The closure time for trading is listed on the event page; if it is 'TBD' check back for an announced cut-off. Trades normally cannot be placed after the market’s specified close, and settlement occurs after the official observation is recorded.
The event page shows the seven discrete outcome labels or temperature bins and their boundaries. Those bins map observed temperatures into a single settled outcome—review the event description to see the exact ranges before making a trade.
Settlement definitions—such as whether the market uses an instantaneous reading, a one-minute average, the standard 2-meter air temperature in shade, and the exact observation timestamp—are specified in the event’s rules. Traders should read that specification because different measurement conventions change the result.
Historical climatology and recent year-to-year variability help frame what outcomes are plausible; consult NOAA/NCEI climate normals, local NWS archives, and station history for March 27 observations. Combine climatology with short-range forecast models and current synoptic charts to form an informed view.