| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 1:00 AM EDT on March 27, 2026. The outcome matters for short-term weather-sensitive decisions (energy scheduling, event planning) and for traders who want to express views on that specific nighttime temperature.
Late March in New York is a transitional period: temperatures can swing from near-winter to mild spring depending on frontal passages and coastal influence. Long-term warming trends shift the baseline slowly, but day-to-day and hour-to-hour outcomes are driven mainly by short-term synoptic and local factors; consult the market's contract text for how this specific event will be measured and settled.
Market prices represent the collective expectation for which temperature outcome (one of seven bins) will occur at the specified time and are updated as new forecasts and observations arrive. Treat those prices as a dynamic signal to combine with meteorological forecasts and model output rather than a standalone certainty.
The market's contract text or settlement source field specifies the official observing station and dataset used for resolution; check the market page or contract rules before trading to see whether a specific NWS/NOAA station, airport ASOS, or other dataset will be used.
The closure time is listed on the market page; if it currently shows 'TBD', monitor the market for an announced close—some markets close a short time before the resolution timestamp or at a published cutoff in the contract.
The largest near-term drivers are the timing of any frontal passage or coastal low, evolving cloud cover and precipitation (rain or snow), and any wind shift from maritime to continental air; a late-arriving front or cloud deck can materially alter the 1 AM temperature.
Use short-range deterministic forecasts and ensemble model guidance (0–72 hours) to form an independent temperature expectation, then compare that to market prices to identify differences in implied consensus; update your assessment as new model runs and observations arrive.
Resolution procedures for missing or questionable observations are defined in the contract’s settlement rules—common contingencies include using the nearest official station, the next valid observation, or an official NWS post-processed value—so review the contract to see the specified fallback.