| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 12:00 PM EDT on March 27, 2026. It matters because precise midday temperatures affect energy demand, transportation decisions, event planning, and short-term weather risk management.
Late March in New York City sits in a seasonal transition where outcomes can swing from cool, late-winter conditions to mild, early-spring warmth depending on large-scale weather patterns. Interannual climate signals (for example, background warming trends and variations in ocean-atmosphere patterns) and the state of the jet stream influence how typical or unusual a given day can be.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations about the most likely outcome at the specified time; prices move as new meteorological information and observations become available. Use them as a real‑time, consensus-informed forecast rather than a deterministic guarantee.
Settlement will follow the market's official resolution rules; those rules specify the exact observation dataset or station (for example a named meteorological station or an authoritative government dataset) and the measurement standard (typically 2‑meter air temperature at the specified time). Check the market's resolution page to see the precise station/dataset used for this event.
The event page currently lists 'Closes: TBD.' Many weather markets close shortly before the observation time, but the definitive closing timestamp for this specific market will be posted on the market page — consult that timestamp before trading.
Markets like this typically rely on authoritative operational sources such as the National Weather Service/NOAA observations, official airport or park stations, or a named meteorological dataset; the market's resolution rules list the exact source that will be used for settlement.
Prices update as traders incorporate new model runs, ensemble forecasts, real‑time surface observations, and forecasting guidance. After the official observation time, settlement uses the specified recorded value; post‑event data revisions or corrections will be handled according to the market's published resolution policy.
Late March is a transitional period with substantial day‑to‑day variability: short cold snaps and unseasonable warm spells are both possible depending on synoptic setup. Longer‑term warming trends have shifted typical conditions, but short‑range atmospheric dynamics remain the primary driver of the exact temperature at noon on any specific date.