| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the official air temperature in New York City will be at 12:00 AM EDT on March 27, 2026. It matters for traders and anyone tracking short-term weather risk because overnight temperatures affect energy demand, transportation, and local conditions.
Late March is a transitional period in the Northeast where warm and cold air masses compete, producing high day-to-day variability in overnight lows. Synoptic features such as the position of coastal lows, frontal passages, cloud cover, and snow cover from prior storms can all shift outcomes for a given night. This market presents discrete outcomes (seven total) that map to predefined temperature bins or exact values listed on the contract page.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which predefined temperature outcome will match the official observation at the specified time and location; higher prices indicate stronger market support for that outcome. Always check the contract text to confirm the reporting station, data source, and settlement rules before trading.
The market will settle to the official hourly air temperature observation recorded for the contract's specified New York City reporting station at 12:00 AM EDT on March 27, 2026; consult the contract text on the market page to see which station and data provider (e.g., local NWS/NOAA feed or designated weather station) will be used for settlement.
The seven outcomes correspond to the discrete temperature ranges or exact values defined by the market creator; review the outcome list on the event page to see the precise bin boundaries or labels before interpreting prices or placing trades.
The market close time is set by the exchange and may be listed on the event page; if the close is marked TBD, monitor the market page for updates—trading typically closes before the observation or at a time specified by the exchange to allow for settlement.
Settlement follows the contract's contingency rules: if the primary data are missing or delayed, the contract will specify alternate sources or procedures (for example, using the nearest official station or a backup dataset); check the contract text for the exact fallback hierarchy and dispute resolution process.
Different stations within NYC can record slightly different temperatures due to elevation, surface type, and urban effects; confirm which station the contract uses and, if necessary, consult recent historical differences between that station and other nearby sites when forming an expectation.