| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will register at 11:00 AM EDT on March 27, 2026. It matters for short‑term weather risk, planning, and for traders who use forecasts to express expectations about that specific hourly reading.
Late March in NYC is a transitional period with high day‑to‑day variability driven by mid‑latitude weather systems, so outcomes can swing depending on frontal timing and cloud cover. This specific Kalshi market offers seven discrete outcomes covering possible temperature ranges; consult the event page for the exact outcome bins and the official data source that will be used for settlement.
Odds in this context represent the market’s collective assessment of how likely each discrete temperature outcome is given available information; they will change as forecasts, observations, and model runs evolve. Use them as a dynamic consensus indicator rather than a fixed forecast.
The event page on the platform will specify the official data source and station used for settlement; common choices include National Weather Service hourly observations or a specific METAR station. Check the market description before trading to confirm the settling dataset.
The close time is listed on the event page (this market currently shows closes: TBD). Many weather markets close shortly before the official observation to prevent trading on the final verified reading; confirm the platform’s stated close time for this event.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature bin; after the official 11:00 AM EDT observation from the specified data source is published, the outcome bin that contains that recorded temperature will be declared the winner per the market’s settlement rules.
New model runs, radar and satellite trends, observed temperature trends during the morning, and any unexpected frontal timing or cloud changes can shift trader expectations and thus market prices before settlement.
Traders often reference climatological averages for late March and recent years’ March 27 readings to set a baseline, but because spring is highly variable, analogs matter only insofar as the current synoptic setup matches those past cases.