| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the officially recorded air temperature in New York City will be on Mar 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT. It matters for traders interested in short-term weather risk, event-driven hedges, and anyone tracking near-term climate variability in the NYC area.
Late March is a transitional period in the Northeast U.S., with the city commonly experiencing a wide range of temperatures due to passing fronts and variable solar heating; some years are cool and others abruptly warm. Forecast skill has improved with global and regional models, but day-to-day outcomes still depend on synoptic-scale timing of lows/highs and local effects like urban heat and coastal influence. Ongoing climate trends raise the baseline over decades but do not eliminate short-term variability driven by weather systems.
Market odds represent collective expectations about which temperature range will be observed at that specific clock time and location, combining model forecasts, observations, and trader risk preferences. Use odds as a real-time summary of market belief rather than a fixed physical forecast—check underlying weather data for the meteorological picture.
The event specifies Mar 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM EDT; EDT is Eastern Daylight Time (UTC−4). Settlement uses the temperature recorded at that local time — verify event rules for any exceptions.
The market's rules or settlement source field will name the official station used for settlement; if the event page does not specify, contact the platform or consult the event's settlement rules, since different official stations (Central Park, LaGuardia, JFK, etc.) can yield different readings.
Broad synoptic features that influence the day are often predictable 3–7 days out, but the precise temperature at a specific hour commonly becomes much clearer in the 24–72 hour window as model ensembles converge and observations update.
Yes — urban heat island, proximity to water, elevation, and local wind patterns can shift morning temperatures by several degrees relative to nearby rural measurements; that is why knowing the official station location matters for trading and settlement.
Each outcome corresponds to a specified temperature or temperature range listed on the event page; settlement maps the observed official station temperature at 10:00 AM EDT on Mar 27, 2026 into whichever outcome interval contains that value, so review the event page for exact range boundaries and settlement rules.