| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 9:00 PM EDT on March 26, 2026; it matters to forecasters, event planners, energy managers, and anyone with weather-sensitive exposure in the city.
Late March in New York is a transitional period when temperatures can swing between cool and mild depending on synoptic storms and air-mass placement. Short- and medium-range numerical weather models, recent observations, and climatology are the main inputs forecasters use to produce a specific-hour temperature forecast. Prediction markets update as new model runs and observations arrive, so prices reflect evolving information.
Market prices represent the collective view of traders about which discrete temperature outcome will be observed at the specified time; they are a real-time indicator of consensus but should be used alongside official forecasts and the market's settlement rules.
It refers to the local clock time 21:00 Eastern Daylight Time on March 26, 2026; settlement will use the observation nearest that official timestamp as defined in the market's settlement rules.
The market's description and settlement rules on KALSHI specify the official station or dataset used for settlement; check that page for the named source and contact support if it is not listed.
Rounding, truncation, and units (Fahrenheit vs Celsius) are defined in the contract's settlement rules; many markets use the official hourly observation reported by the chosen station and then apply a specified rounding convention—verify the exact rule on the market page.
This market's close time is listed on the event page (Closes: TBD); in practice, weather contracts often close shortly before the observation to prevent trading after the outcome is effectively known, so confirm the exact cutoff on KALSHI.
Watch successive runs of major models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), ensemble spreads, the timing and strength of any fronts or coastal lows, forecast cloud cover and precipitation, and surface observations the day before for rapid adjustments to the expected 21:00 temperature.