| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range New York City will record on March 26, 2026 at 9:00 AM EDT; it matters for people and businesses that hedge or plan around short-term weather conditions. Market prices provide a continuously updated consensus about that specific observation time.
Late March in New York is a transition month with high day-to-day variability: conditions can range from cool post-frontal air to early spring warmth depending on synoptic patterns. The event will be influenced by large-scale drivers (jet stream position, frontal systems) together with local effects (urban heat island, proximity to water). Settlement and exact measurement procedures are determined by the event rules on the trading platform and should be checked before trading.
Market odds reflect traders’ aggregated expectations and move as new model runs and observations arrive; interpret them as a real-time consensus signal rather than a fixed weather forecast.
Settlement depends on the market's rules: most weather contracts specify an official observing source (for example an NWS/NOAA station or a designated ASOS/METAR site) and the exact timestamp. Check the event page’s settlement clause to see the named station and reporting network used for this market.
The event listing should show the close time; if it is listed as TBD, assume trading will typically close at or just before the listed observation time but verify the precise cutoff on the market page because platforms may lock markets earlier to prevent last-second arbitrage.
New model output and real-time observations immediately shift traders’ expectations, so markets often move noticeably in the 24–48 hours prior to the observation, especially if a front or rapid temperature change is forecast to occur overnight or early morning.
Outcome bins are defined on the event page; the settlement procedure will state whether the observed temperature is rounded (and which direction), reported to the nearest whole degree, or uses tenths, and whether endpoints are inclusive. Always read the event’s settlement rules to know exact bin boundaries and rounding conventions.
Climatology provides a baseline expectation for late-March conditions and typical variability, but it should be combined with current model guidance and recent observations because synoptic-scale patterns often produce departures from the climatological average on specific dates.