| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 8:00 PM EDT on March 26, 2026; outcomes matter for traders, planners, and anyone with weather-dependent decisions that night.
Late March in NYC is a transitional period when a wide range of temperatures is possible depending on synoptic patterns (cold fronts, coastal storms, or warm advection). Long-term climate trends have nudged seasonal averages upward, but day-to-day values are still dominated by short-term weather systems. Markets like this aggregate real-time expectations from forecasters and the public as new forecasts and observations arrive.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which temperature bin will contain the official observation at the specified time; treat them as a consensus signal that updates as forecasts and observations change.
The contract's settlement source listed on the market page specifies the official observation; check the event's rules on KALSHI to see which station or dataset will be used for settlement.
Trading close is shown on the market page (currently TBD for this event); the contract resolves after the designated source publishes the official observation for 8:00 PM EDT and the exchange posts the settled outcome following its validation rules.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined temperature range (bins) listed on the event page; consult the market description to see the exact numeric boundaries and whether endpoints are inclusive.
The event's resolution methodology will specify how to handle timestamps and averaging (for example nearest-minute, hourly observation, or station report rules); the exchange will apply that rule when selecting the reading used for settlement.
Combine short-range model outputs and local NWS forecasts (which capture fronts and mesoscale features) with late‑March climatological normals as a baseline; prioritize recent observations and forecast trends because synoptic changes can produce rapid shifts from climatological expectations.