| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range New York City will record at 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 26, 2026. It matters for traders and anyone with weather-sensitive exposure to that specific morning (e.g., energy demand, transport, outdoor events).
Late March is a transitional month with frequent swings between lingering winter air masses and advancing spring warmth; day-to-day outcomes depend heavily on the synoptic pattern in the week before the date. Forecast skill improves as the event approaches, and long-term climate trends have shifted baseline temperatures upward over recent decades while leaving short-term variability intact.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of which preset temperature bin will be observed at the specified time; they update when new model runs, observations, or trader information arrive and should be read as a consensus signal rather than a single-model forecast.
It resolves to the temperature reported at 8:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 26, 2026, i.e., local NYC time; if the market references UTC or another standard, the event page will provide the official conversion and resolution time.
The event's resolution/source is specified on the KALSHI event page; platforms commonly use an official NWS/NOAA observation station or a named dataset, so verify the 'resolution' or 'source' field on the market before trading.
Model runs and new observations in the 0–7 day window before the event are most influential; as model consensus and the timing of fronts become clearer, expected outcomes and market prices can shift substantially.
Each outcome corresponds to a labeled temperature range (a bracket/bin) shown on the event page; purchasing an outcome means you expect the observed temperature at the specified time to fall inside that bracket when the market resolves.
Consider climatological late‑March averages and variability, the risk of late‑season cold-air intrusions or coastal storms (Nor'easters), coastal moderation effects, and the longer-term warming trend that raises baseline temperatures—while remembering that single-day values are dominated by short‑term weather systems.