| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 7:00 PM EDT on March 26, 2026; it matters to traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability. Outcomes let participants express expectations about a specific meteorological observation at a fixed time and place.
Late March in New York City is a transitional period with large day-to-day swings driven by the position of the jet stream and incoming air masses; individual evenings can be mild, chilly, or impacted by coastal storms. Seasonal climate trends and urban factors (like the heat island) influence typical conditions, but synoptic weather systems produce most of the short-term variability relevant to a single date and time.
Market odds reflect collective expectations about the official measured temperature at the specified time and settle to the outcome that matches the contract’s measurement rules; they change as new forecast data and observations arrive. Interpret prices as the market’s current consensus view, not as a guarantee of the eventual observation.
The contract will settle to the official temperature reading specified in the market rules; the market text should identify the authoritative station/instrument and data source (for example, an official NOAA station or other designated reporting site).
The specified local time '7:00 PM EDT' refers to Eastern Daylight Time; the contract’s settlement rules will state how that local timestamp is mapped to the observation used for settlement and how any time-zone or clock-change issues are treated.
Settlement procedures in the contract define rounding, bin boundaries, and tie rules (for example, whether temperatures are rounded to the nearest tenth and which outcome covers a boundary); consult the market’s official rules for the precise convention.
Settlement typically occurs after the official observation becomes available and any platform-defined verification or dispute window has closed; the market page or platform rules will give the expected settlement timeline.
Short-range deterministic and ensemble model runs (GFS, ECMWF, NAM, local high-resolution models), satellite and radar for cloud/precipitation trends, and observations from nearby surface stations are most informative; also watch synoptic updates (frontal passages, coastal storm development) that can rapidly change evening temperatures.