| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature New York City will record at 7:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 26, 2026; it matters for participants who trade weather risk or want to anticipate conditions for travel, energy use, and outdoor plans that morning.
Late March is a transitional period when synoptic-scale patterns (coastal storms, Arctic intrusions, or early-season warmth) can produce wide swings in morning temperatures across the NYC area. Local factors such as proximity to the Atlantic, urban heat island effects, and recent multi-week trends all influence the observed temperature on a given date.
Market prices aggregate trader expectations about the actual observed temperature at the stated time and place; interpreting prices requires knowing the contract's official observation source, outcome bins, and any rounding or averaging rules.
The market resolves to the official data source and reporting station named in the contract terms (typically an NWS/NOAA observation or a specific ASOS/METAR site). Check the market's resolution rules to see the designated station and data product used for the 7:00 AM reading.
Each of the seven outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature bin or range as listed on the market page; those bins are mutually exclusive and cover the possible observed values. Review the market page for the exact numeric ranges and any rounding/precision conventions used at settlement.
Resolution uses the stated local time: 7:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time on March 26, 2026. The exchange will rely on the timestamp from the designated observing station; ensure you account for daylight saving time when comparing other time zones or observation products.
Consider climatological variability for late March (typical diurnal range and common extremes), recent weekly trends leading up to the date, and any seasonal anomalies such as prolonged warmth or cold. Also factor in last-minute model shifts and how urban measurement sites compare with airport or coastal stations.
Monitor official forecasts and observations from NWS/NOAA, numerical model guidance (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), local METAR/ASOS reports from NYC-area airports and the designated observation site, short-range mesoscale updates, and the market's own announcements about resolution or rule changes.