| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 6:00 p.m. EDT on March 26, 2026. Outcomes matter to energy use, transportation and event planning and provide a focused, time‑specific test of weather forecasting skill.
Late March in New York is a transitional period between winter and spring, so day‑to‑day temperatures can swing widely depending on passing frontal systems and maritime influence. Long‑term climate trends have raised average temperatures, but the temperature at a single hour is dominated by short‑term meteorology (synoptic patterns, cloud cover, and local effects). The contract will settle to a specific, pre‑identified observing source listed in the market’s resolution terms.
Market prices aggregate real‑time information (forecasts, observations, and participant views) about what the temperature will be at the specified time and place. Use prices as a dynamic summary of market expectations, but cross‑check with operational weather forecasts and the market’s official resolution rules.
The market’s resolution text on the exchange specifies the exact observing station, dataset and measurement convention used for settlement (for example, a named NOAA/NWS station or an NCEI hourly observation). Consult the contract page to find the designated source before trading.
The market page shows the trading close (this listing currently shows close as TBD). Settlement occurs after the official 6:00 p.m. EDT observation is posted by the designated agency; the contract’s resolution rules describe the settlement timing and any allowance for delayed or revised observations.
Six p.m. in late March is typically near or after local sunset, so forecasts must account for the evening transition: daytime heating has waned, radiative cooling may begin, and small changes in cloud cover or wind can have outsized effects on the measured temperature at that hour.
Station‑specific historical observations and climatologies are available from NOAA/NCEI and local weather station archives (e.g., Central Park, LaGuardia, JFK). Use the same observing station and time of day as the contract’s resolution source when comparing past values to avoid mismatches.
Use a combination of high‑resolution short‑range models and nowcasts (convection‑allowing and mesoscale models) for the day‑of timing and cloud cover, global models for synoptic context, MOS/MAV guidance for temperature guidance, and live surface observations, radar and satellite to watch evolving conditions.