| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the air temperature in New York City will be at 6:00 AM EDT on March 26, 2026; it matters for short-term energy demand, transportation planning, and event logistics in the city. Traders aggregate forecast information that can reflect rapidly changing weather signals in the days before the timestamp.
Late March is a transitional period in the Northeast U.S., when conditions can range from late-winter cold to early-spring warmth depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Local factors such as the urban heat island, proximity to the Atlantic, and any remaining snow cover can alter overnight lows compared with regional forecasts. Long-term climate trends have shifted the baseline of seasonal temperatures but do not remove day-to-day variability from weather systems.
Market odds represent the collective assessment of participants given available forecasts and observations and will change as new model runs and observations arrive. Use them as a real-time consensus signal while also consulting official meteorological sources for the underlying forecast details.
The contract’s resolution rules specify the official observation source and station used to determine the temperature; check the event page or contract documentation to see which official weather station or dataset (for example a specified NOAA station) will be used.
The event uses the stated local time (EDT). For March 26, 2026 the 6:00 AM measurement is the wall-clock 6:00 AM Eastern Daylight Time; the resolution rules will outline any UTC conversion if needed for data sourcing.
The market’s published resolution policy describes fallback procedures—commonly using an alternate nearby official station, a consolidated NOAA archive, or a designated secondary data source—so consult those rules for how missing or conflicting observations are handled.
A frontal passage can rapidly change temperatures in the hours before 6 AM; arriving clouds reduce nocturnal cooling and keep temperatures higher, while clearing skies allow stronger radiational cooling. Timing of those features relative to 6 AM is therefore crucial.
March is a high-variability month where both cold snaps and early warm spells are possible; comparing the event to multi-year March climatology for the specified station gives context, and accounting for recent seasonal trends and any antecedent snow cover helps interpret an individual reading.